Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →90.7%
Bury
5.8%
Draw
3.5%
Darlington
Expected Goals (xG)
4.40
Bury
vs
0.97
Darlington
Markets
BTTS61.2%
Over 0.599.6%
Over 1.597.0%
Over 2.590.3%
Over 3.578.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
4-0
7.3%
4-1
7.1%
3-0
6.6%
3-1
6.4%
5-0
6.4%
5-1
6.2%
2-0
4.5%
2-1
4.4%
4-2
3.4%
3-2
3.1%
5-2
3.0%
2-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).