Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →6.6%
Watford
16.4%
Draw
77.1%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
0.65
Watford
vs
2.52
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS45.1%
Over 0.594.9%
Over 1.583.5%
Over 2.561.5%
Over 3.539.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.3%
0-3
11.2%
0-1
9.6%
1-2
8.7%
1-1
7.8%
1-3
7.3%
0-4
7.1%
0-0
5.1%
1-4
4.6%
0-5
3.6%
2-2
2.8%
2-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).