Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.8%
Watford
28.0%
Draw
22.2%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.49
Watford
vs
0.92
Luton
Markets
BTTS47.5%
Over 0.590.1%
Over 1.570.3%
Over 2.543.3%
Over 3.522.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.2%
1-0
12.5%
2-0
10.0%
0-0
9.9%
2-1
9.2%
0-1
7.3%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.0%
3-1
4.6%
2-2
4.2%
0-2
3.8%
3-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).