Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.9%
Arouca
22.1%
Draw
33.0%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.76
Arouca
vs
1.48
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS63.5%
Over 0.596.5%
Over 1.583.0%
Over 2.562.8%
Over 3.540.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.5%
1-0
7.3%
2-2
6.6%
0-1
6.2%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
5.3%
0-2
4.3%
3-2
3.9%
1-3
3.7%
3-0
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).