Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.0%
Spal
27.5%
Draw
35.4%
Cagliari
Expected Goals (xG)
1.19
Spal
vs
1.16
Cagliari
Markets
BTTS47.6%
Over 0.590.7%
Over 1.567.9%
Over 2.541.8%
Over 3.521.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
1-0
11.6%
0-1
11.3%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
6.8%
0-2
6.4%
2-2
4.5%
3-1
3.1%
1-3
3.0%
3-0
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).