Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.3%
Burgos
26.4%
Draw
16.4%
Villarreal B
Expected Goals (xG)
1.46
Burgos
vs
0.64
Villarreal B
Markets
BTTS36.3%
Over 0.587.9%
Over 1.562.1%
Over 2.535.2%
Over 3.516.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.9%
2-0
13.1%
0-0
12.1%
1-1
11.3%
2-1
8.4%
0-1
7.9%
3-0
6.4%
3-1
4.1%
1-2
3.7%
2-2
2.7%
0-2
2.5%
4-0
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).