Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.9%
Ipswich
24.3%
Draw
19.8%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.87
Ipswich
vs
1.04
Derby
Markets
BTTS55.5%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.579.5%
Over 2.555.5%
Over 3.533.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.6%
1-0
9.3%
0-0
6.4%
3-1
6.2%
3-0
5.9%
1-2
5.5%
2-2
5.1%
0-1
4.8%
3-2
3.2%
0-2
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).