Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →76.3%
Benfica
17.6%
Draw
6.2%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
2.18
Benfica
vs
0.48
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS34.3%
Over 0.592.4%
Over 1.574.9%
Over 2.549.6%
Over 3.527.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
16.7%
1-0
14.7%
3-0
12.1%
2-1
8.0%
1-1
7.9%
0-0
7.6%
4-0
6.6%
3-1
5.8%
4-1
3.2%
5-0
2.9%
0-1
2.8%
2-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).