Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →18.5%
Tottenham
23.5%
Draw
58.0%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.11
Tottenham
vs
2.06
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS59.8%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.583.9%
Over 2.561.4%
Over 3.539.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.9%
1-2
9.9%
0-2
8.9%
0-1
7.3%
1-3
6.8%
0-3
6.1%
0-0
5.5%
2-2
5.5%
2-1
5.3%
2-3
3.8%
1-4
3.5%
1-0
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).