Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →73.8%
Porto
20.3%
Draw
5.9%
Santa Clara
Expected Goals (xG)
1.73
Porto
vs
0.29
Santa Clara
Markets
BTTS20.4%
Over 0.587.0%
Over 1.559.5%
Over 2.532.8%
Over 3.514.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
23.3%
2-0
19.8%
0-0
13.0%
3-0
11.4%
1-1
6.4%
2-1
5.8%
4-0
4.9%
0-1
4.2%
3-1
3.3%
5-0
1.7%
4-1
1.4%
1-2
1.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).