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09 Mar 2019

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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50.5%
AFC Wimbledon
22.3%
Draw
27.2%
Doncaster

Expected Goals (xG)

1.68

AFC Wimbledon

vs
1.15

Doncaster

Markets

BTTS54.7%
Over 0.595.0%
Over 1.576.4%
Over 2.553.7%
Over 3.531.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
10.9%
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
8.3%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
5.5%
3-1
5.3%
0-0
5.0%
3-0
4.6%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
3.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).