Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.0%
Alaves
30.8%
Draw
26.1%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Alaves
vs
0.80
Malaga
Markets
BTTS36.9%
Over 0.585.4%
Over 1.556.9%
Over 2.530.0%
Over 3.512.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.6%
0-0
14.6%
1-1
13.0%
0-1
11.9%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
7.3%
1-2
5.2%
0-2
4.7%
3-0
3.4%
2-2
2.9%
3-1
2.7%
1-3
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).