Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →73.8%
Sp Braga
17.3%
Draw
8.9%
Farense
Expected Goals (xG)
2.09
Sp Braga
vs
0.55
Farense
Markets
BTTS36.7%
Over 0.593.2%
Over 1.573.6%
Over 2.549.1%
Over 3.527.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.6%
1-0
15.3%
3-0
10.8%
2-1
8.6%
1-1
7.9%
0-0
6.8%
3-1
6.0%
4-0
5.7%
0-1
4.3%
4-1
3.1%
5-0
2.4%
2-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).