Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →42.4%
Alaves
28.0%
Draw
29.7%
Santander
Expected Goals (xG)
1.27
Alaves
vs
1.01
Santander
Markets
BTTS45.5%
Over 0.589.8%
Over 1.566.2%
Over 2.539.7%
Over 3.519.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.1%
1-1
13.0%
0-1
10.5%
0-0
10.2%
2-1
8.3%
2-0
8.2%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.2%
2-2
4.2%
3-1
3.5%
3-0
3.5%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).