Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.0%
Middlesbrough
23.7%
Draw
14.3%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Middlesbrough
vs
0.77
Luton
Markets
BTTS45.7%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.574.0%
Over 2.548.1%
Over 3.526.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.9%
2-0
12.5%
1-1
11.2%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.2%
3-0
7.6%
3-1
5.8%
0-1
4.9%
1-2
4.0%
2-2
3.7%
4-0
3.5%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).