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30 Aug 2025 · 14:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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55.4%
Morpeth Town
19.4%
Draw
25.2%
Pontefract Collieries

Expected Goals (xG)

2.28

Morpeth Town

vs
1.50

Pontefract Collieries

Markets

BTTS69.6%
Over 0.598.0%
Over 1.588.9%
Over 2.572.9%
Over 3.552.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-1
8.9%
1-1
7.5%
3-1
6.8%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
5.9%
1-2
5.8%
1-0
5.4%
3-2
5.1%
3-0
4.5%
4-1
3.9%
0-1
3.7%
2-3
3.3%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).