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AHT: 11CSV

01 Jan 2024 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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63.5%
Derby
19.8%
Draw
16.7%
Peterboro

Expected Goals (xG)

1.91

Derby

vs
0.84

Peterboro

Markets

BTTS47.6%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.575.2%
Over 2.551.9%
Over 3.529.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
13.1%
2-0
11.7%
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.4%
3-0
7.4%
3-1
6.2%
0-1
6.2%
0-0
5.5%
1-2
4.3%
2-2
4.1%
4-0
3.6%
4-1
3.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).