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HHT: 20CSV

17 Apr 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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66.4%
Dortmund
21.5%
Draw
12.2%
Hamburg

Expected Goals (xG)

2.02

Dortmund

vs
0.75

Hamburg

Markets

BTTS46.4%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.577.0%
Over 2.552.2%
Over 3.530.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
12.8%
1-0
12.0%
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.6%
3-0
8.6%
0-0
7.0%
3-1
6.4%
4-0
4.3%
0-1
4.0%
2-2
3.6%
1-2
3.6%
4-1
3.2%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).