Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.5%
Gillingham
25.8%
Draw
26.6%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Gillingham
vs
0.98
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS46.6%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.568.3%
Over 2.542.7%
Over 3.521.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.5%
1-1
12.1%
0-1
9.5%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
8.9%
0-0
8.6%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
4.4%
2-2
4.4%
3-0
4.3%
3-1
4.2%
3-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).