Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →72.7%
Malaga
19.1%
Draw
8.3%
Ferrol
Expected Goals (xG)
1.95
Malaga
vs
0.48
Ferrol
Markets
BTTS32.6%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.569.7%
Over 2.543.7%
Over 3.522.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.3%
2-0
16.7%
3-0
10.9%
0-0
8.8%
1-1
8.2%
2-1
8.0%
4-0
5.3%
3-1
5.2%
0-1
4.3%
4-1
2.5%
5-0
2.1%
1-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).