Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →19.0%
Northampton
25.0%
Draw
55.9%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.69
Northampton
vs
1.44
Derby
Markets
BTTS37.2%
Over 0.589.1%
Over 1.561.8%
Over 2.535.9%
Over 3.516.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
18.0%
0-2
12.2%
0-0
10.9%
1-1
10.9%
1-0
9.2%
1-2
8.5%
0-3
5.9%
2-1
4.1%
1-3
4.1%
2-2
3.0%
2-0
2.9%
0-4
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).