⚽ FootballData
3 – 3
DHT: 12CSV

21 Apr 2023 · 20:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

View all models →
91.3%
Arsenal
7.2%
Draw
1.5%
Southampton

Expected Goals (xG)

3.40

Arsenal

vs
0.39

Southampton

Markets

BTTS31.7%
Over 0.597.3%
Over 1.589.6%
Over 2.573.0%
Over 3.552.5%

Most Likely Scorelines

3-0
14.8%
2-0
13.0%
4-0
12.6%
5-0
8.6%
1-0
7.3%
3-1
5.8%
2-1
5.1%
4-1
4.9%
1-1
3.4%
5-1
3.3%
0-0
2.7%
3-2
1.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).