Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.6%
Spezia
31.1%
Draw
28.3%
Brescia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.25
Spezia
vs
1.00
Brescia
Markets
BTTS46.3%
Over 0.588.1%
Over 1.567.0%
Over 2.539.0%
Over 3.519.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
11.9%
0-1
9.3%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
5.3%
2-2
4.1%
3-0
3.4%
3-1
3.4%
1-3
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).