Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.9%
Manchester City
26.5%
Draw
17.5%
Crystal Palace
Expected Goals (xG)
1.75
Manchester City
vs
0.90
Crystal Palace
Markets
BTTS50.5%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.575.7%
Over 2.549.3%
Over 3.527.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
1-0
10.9%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.6%
3-0
6.3%
3-1
5.7%
1-2
5.0%
0-1
4.8%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
2.9%
4-0
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).