Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →84.1%
Manchester City
11.3%
Draw
4.6%
Ipswich
Expected Goals (xG)
3.20
Manchester City
vs
0.72
Ipswich
Markets
BTTS50.1%
Over 0.597.4%
Over 1.590.9%
Over 2.575.0%
Over 3.555.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
10.8%
2-0
10.1%
4-0
8.6%
3-1
7.8%
2-1
7.3%
4-1
6.2%
1-0
5.7%
5-0
5.5%
1-1
5.2%
5-1
4.0%
3-2
2.8%
2-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).