Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.4%
Crewe
24.0%
Draw
22.6%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.60
Crewe
vs
0.94
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS48.0%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.571.5%
Over 2.546.5%
Over 3.525.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.2%
1-1
11.3%
2-0
10.1%
2-1
9.5%
0-1
7.9%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.4%
3-1
5.1%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.5%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).