Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.3%
Derby
25.1%
Draw
19.6%
Bolton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
Derby
vs
0.71
Bolton
Markets
BTTS37.7%
Over 0.589.3%
Over 1.562.1%
Over 2.536.2%
Over 3.516.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.8%
2-0
12.0%
1-1
11.0%
0-0
10.7%
0-1
9.4%
2-1
8.5%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
4.3%
3-1
4.1%
2-2
3.0%
0-2
3.0%
4-0
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).