Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.3%
Benfica
13.9%
Draw
5.9%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
2.64
Benfica
vs
0.61
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS42.5%
Over 0.595.7%
Over 1.583.8%
Over 2.562.9%
Over 3.540.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.6%
3-0
11.9%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
8.2%
4-0
7.9%
3-1
7.2%
1-1
6.6%
4-1
4.8%
0-0
4.3%
5-0
4.2%
5-1
2.5%
2-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).