Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →26.0%
Hartlepool
22.1%
Draw
52.0%
Swindon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.23
Hartlepool
vs
1.83
Swindon
Markets
BTTS58.9%
Over 0.595.7%
Over 1.580.5%
Over 2.559.0%
Over 3.536.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.1%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
9.0%
0-2
7.9%
2-1
6.5%
1-0
6.2%
2-2
5.9%
1-3
5.9%
0-3
4.8%
0-0
4.3%
2-3
3.6%
2-0
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).