Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.9%
Derby
25.0%
Draw
27.1%
Lincoln
Expected Goals (xG)
1.39
Derby
vs
0.96
Lincoln
Markets
BTTS45.4%
Over 0.591.6%
Over 1.567.1%
Over 2.541.9%
Over 3.521.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.3%
1-1
11.7%
0-1
10.2%
2-0
9.2%
2-1
8.9%
0-0
8.4%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
4.3%
2-2
4.3%
3-1
4.1%
3-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).