Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →15.0%
Alaves
24.5%
Draw
60.5%
Real Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
0.69
Alaves
vs
1.66
Real Madrid
Markets
BTTS40.7%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.568.4%
Over 2.541.8%
Over 3.521.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.6%
0-2
13.1%
1-1
11.2%
0-0
9.7%
1-2
9.1%
0-3
7.3%
1-0
6.3%
1-3
5.0%
2-1
3.8%
2-2
3.1%
0-4
3.0%
2-0
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).