Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.9%
Southend
27.9%
Draw
27.2%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.24
Southend
vs
0.89
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS41.5%
Over 0.588.8%
Over 1.562.4%
Over 2.536.0%
Over 3.516.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.2%
1-1
12.5%
0-0
11.2%
0-1
11.1%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
5.9%
0-2
4.7%
3-0
3.8%
2-2
3.6%
3-1
3.4%
1-3
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).