Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →25.3%
Hartlepool
21.8%
Draw
52.9%
Swindon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.21
Hartlepool
vs
1.86
Swindon
Markets
BTTS58.9%
Over 0.595.8%
Over 1.580.7%
Over 2.559.2%
Over 3.536.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.0%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
9.1%
0-2
8.0%
2-1
6.3%
1-0
6.1%
1-3
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
0-3
4.9%
0-0
4.2%
2-3
3.6%
2-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).