Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →68.2%
Milan
20.7%
Draw
11.1%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
1.86
Milan
vs
0.59
Spal
Markets
BTTS37.4%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.570.1%
Over 2.544.3%
Over 3.523.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.2%
2-0
15.0%
3-0
9.3%
1-1
9.3%
2-1
8.8%
0-0
8.5%
3-1
5.5%
0-1
5.2%
4-0
4.3%
1-2
2.8%
2-2
2.6%
4-1
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).