Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →78.7%
Birmingham
14.8%
Draw
6.4%
Northampton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.18
Birmingham
vs
0.42
Northampton
Markets
BTTS30.1%
Over 0.593.2%
Over 1.572.8%
Over 2.548.3%
Over 3.526.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
17.6%
1-0
16.7%
3-0
12.8%
2-1
7.5%
4-0
7.0%
0-0
6.8%
1-1
6.3%
3-1
5.4%
0-1
3.7%
5-0
3.0%
4-1
3.0%
2-2
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).