Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.0%
Alverca
28.5%
Draw
24.6%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.23
Alverca
vs
0.80
Tondela
Markets
BTTS38.4%
Over 0.587.4%
Over 1.559.7%
Over 2.533.2%
Over 3.514.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.7%
0-0
12.6%
1-1
12.3%
0-1
11.0%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
5.2%
0-2
4.2%
3-0
4.1%
3-1
3.3%
2-2
3.2%
1-3
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).