Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.0%
Pau FC
26.8%
Draw
28.1%
Bastia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.24
Pau FC
vs
0.91
Bastia
Markets
BTTS41.5%
Over 0.589.5%
Over 1.562.4%
Over 2.536.5%
Over 3.517.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.5%
1-1
12.1%
0-1
11.6%
0-0
10.5%
2-0
9.0%
2-1
8.2%
1-2
6.0%
0-2
4.8%
3-0
3.7%
2-2
3.7%
3-1
3.4%
1-3
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).