Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →66.5%
Lazio
20.4%
Draw
13.0%
Salernitana
Expected Goals (xG)
1.94
Lazio
vs
0.71
Salernitana
Markets
BTTS43.4%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.574.0%
Over 2.549.4%
Over 3.527.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.9%
2-0
13.3%
1-1
9.6%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
8.6%
0-0
6.9%
3-1
6.1%
0-1
5.2%
4-0
4.1%
1-2
3.5%
2-2
3.4%
4-1
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).