Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.4%
Newport County
27.1%
Draw
28.6%
Harrogate
Expected Goals (xG)
1.30
Newport County
vs
0.98
Harrogate
Markets
BTTS44.8%
Over 0.590.2%
Over 1.565.8%
Over 2.539.7%
Over 3.519.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.9%
1-1
12.5%
0-1
10.6%
0-0
9.8%
2-0
8.7%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
4.9%
2-2
4.1%
3-0
3.7%
3-1
3.7%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).