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02 Sept 2023 · 15:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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27.5%
Aldershot
19.8%
Draw
52.7%
Chesterfield

Expected Goals (xG)

1.85

Aldershot

vs
2.54

Chesterfield

Markets

BTTS78.0%
Over 0.598.3%
Over 1.593.8%
Over 2.581.3%
Over 3.563.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-2
7.4%
2-2
6.8%
1-1
6.3%
1-3
6.3%
2-3
5.8%
2-1
5.4%
3-2
4.2%
0-2
4.0%
1-4
4.0%
2-4
3.7%
3-3
3.6%
0-3
3.4%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).