Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →27.5%
Aldershot
19.8%
Draw
52.7%
Chesterfield
Expected Goals (xG)
1.85
Aldershot
vs
2.54
Chesterfield
Markets
BTTS78.0%
Over 0.598.3%
Over 1.593.8%
Over 2.581.3%
Over 3.563.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
7.4%
2-2
6.8%
1-1
6.3%
1-3
6.3%
2-3
5.8%
2-1
5.4%
3-2
4.2%
0-2
4.0%
1-4
4.0%
2-4
3.7%
3-3
3.6%
0-3
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).