Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →12.3%
Spezia
20.0%
Draw
67.7%
Napoli
Expected Goals (xG)
0.69
Spezia
vs
1.97
Napoli
Markets
BTTS42.7%
Over 0.593.1%
Over 1.574.2%
Over 2.549.5%
Over 3.527.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.0%
0-2
13.6%
1-2
9.4%
1-1
9.4%
0-3
8.9%
0-0
6.9%
1-3
6.1%
1-0
5.0%
0-4
4.4%
2-1
3.3%
2-2
3.2%
1-4
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).