Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →53.7%
Bournemouth
26.3%
Draw
20.0%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.66
Bournemouth
vs
0.93
Derby
Markets
BTTS50.0%
Over 0.591.5%
Over 1.574.1%
Over 2.548.0%
Over 3.526.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.5%
1-0
11.5%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
9.6%
0-0
8.5%
0-1
6.0%
3-0
5.7%
1-2
5.4%
3-1
5.3%
2-2
4.5%
0-2
3.2%
3-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).