Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →54.8%
Chelsea
29.0%
Draw
16.2%
Sunderland
Expected Goals (xG)
1.53
Chelsea
vs
0.73
Sunderland
Markets
BTTS42.3%
Over 0.588.0%
Over 1.567.6%
Over 2.539.4%
Over 3.519.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.3%
1-1
13.3%
2-0
12.2%
0-0
12.0%
2-1
8.9%
3-0
6.2%
0-1
6.0%
3-1
4.5%
1-2
4.3%
2-2
3.3%
0-2
2.8%
4-0
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).