Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →24.9%
Belenenses
28.5%
Draw
46.6%
Guimaraes
Expected Goals (xG)
0.80
Belenenses
vs
1.23
Guimaraes
Markets
BTTS38.5%
Over 0.587.4%
Over 1.559.6%
Over 2.533.1%
Over 3.514.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.7%
0-0
12.6%
1-1
12.4%
1-0
11.1%
0-2
9.9%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
5.2%
2-0
4.3%
0-3
4.0%
1-3
3.2%
2-2
3.2%
3-1
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).