Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.7%
Nacional
28.6%
Draw
29.6%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Nacional
vs
1.13
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS51.7%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.572.5%
Over 2.546.0%
Over 3.524.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.6%
1-0
10.2%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
8.2%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.2%
2-2
4.9%
3-1
4.0%
3-0
3.6%
1-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).