Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.2%
Matlock Town
22.7%
Draw
28.1%
Carlton Town
Expected Goals (xG)
1.77
Matlock Town
vs
1.28
Carlton Town
Markets
BTTS59.5%
Over 0.595.6%
Over 1.580.4%
Over 2.558.7%
Over 3.536.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.4%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.7%
2-0
7.4%
1-2
6.9%
0-1
6.4%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
5.6%
0-0
4.4%
3-0
4.4%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).