Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.1%
Sunderland
31.9%
Draw
24.9%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
1.20
Sunderland
vs
0.85
Watford
Markets
BTTS41.2%
Over 0.586.1%
Over 1.562.0%
Over 2.533.8%
Over 3.515.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.3%
1-1
14.2%
0-0
13.9%
0-1
9.8%
2-0
9.3%
2-1
7.9%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
4.6%
3-0
3.7%
2-2
3.4%
3-1
3.2%
1-3
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).