Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →26.6%
West Ham
28.3%
Draw
45.1%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.17
West Ham
vs
1.57
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS56.2%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.577.4%
Over 2.551.5%
Over 3.529.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-2
9.3%
0-1
8.5%
0-0
8.1%
0-2
8.0%
2-1
6.9%
1-0
5.9%
2-2
5.4%
1-3
4.9%
2-0
4.4%
0-3
4.2%
2-3
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).