Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.9%
Perugia
28.0%
Draw
21.1%
Alessandria
Expected Goals (xG)
1.55
Perugia
vs
0.92
Alessandria
Markets
BTTS48.4%
Over 0.590.3%
Over 1.571.7%
Over 2.544.6%
Over 3.523.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.3%
1-0
12.0%
2-0
10.2%
0-0
9.7%
2-1
9.3%
0-1
6.6%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.3%
3-1
4.8%
2-2
4.3%
0-2
3.6%
3-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).