Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.1%
QPR
27.3%
Draw
36.7%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
1.40
QPR
vs
1.41
Derby
Markets
BTTS57.8%
Over 0.592.9%
Over 1.578.0%
Over 2.553.2%
Over 3.530.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.9%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
7.5%
1-0
7.4%
0-0
7.1%
0-2
6.0%
2-0
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
1-3
3.9%
3-1
3.9%
0-3
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).